On August 20, NASA and IBM launched an open-source AI model, Surya, predicting solar flares two hours early for satellites and power grids’ solar storm protection.
Trained on 9 years of Solar Dynamics Observatory imagery, Surya improves flare detection accuracy by 16%, offering much-needed lead time to protect infrastructure.
The tool’s public release will globalize space weather preparedness at a time when solar cycle activities are increasing.
Earlier this year, the country practiced for a bad geomagnetic storm practice problem, a potent solar storm that could damage critical systems. The exercise disclosed just how thin today’s tools are in predicting space weather.
Now, with Surya, there’s potential for genuine breakthrough in knowing and predicting what the Sun holds.
Smarter Forecasts for More Sun Activity
The Sun consistently emits energy bursts – solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar winds – than can burn satellites, affect power grids, and damage communications on Earth.
Detecting any solar flare heading towards Earth is key.
Surya uses AI trained on nine years of NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory data. Since 2010, the telescope has captured close-up Sun images every 12 seconds, and by analyzing them, Surya predicts solar flares around 2 hours in advance and pinpoints the Sun’s origin.
“It’s very important to have a mechanism to look into the Sun and understand how these events [are going to happen],” said Juan Bernabé-Moreno director of IBM Research Europe.
AI Opening New Windows into Solar Activity
In contrast to traditional tools based on narrow perspectives, Surya is more precise and forward-looking. It provides a new method of AI predicting solar flares by employing previous trends to create models of what satellites would observe hours hence. This enhances the accuracy of timing as well as locations for scientists monitoring perilous solar phenomena.
Already, testing has resulted in a 16% improvement in correct detection of solar flares. As a solar storm AI, Surya could provide decision-makers with more lead time, with more chance to shield power grids and retain service through major space weather events.
Technology also helps in protecting satellites from space weather, a top-priority problem during high solar activity. As a model learning from past solar cycles, scientists are now refining it by incorporating fresh data from ongoing Solar Cycle 25.
NASA and IBM released Surya as open source, hoping that researchers everywhere will be able to unleash its full potential. As the danger from solar activity grows, technology like this is important to our solar storm protection strategy.
“Surya is just the beginning,” Bernabé-Moreno said. “That is going to make it valuable. That, for us, is the most thrilling part,” he continued.
With enhanced forecasting and greater availability, Surya would increase national space weather preparedness and global awareness. Through enhanced space weather alerts and faster NASA space weather alerts allowing for a strong system of solar protection throughout the world.
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