Apple is projected to surpass Samsung as the world’s top smartphone maker in 2025, ending a 14-year run of second place, as iPhone 17 lineup demand fuels a surge in global shipments and strengthens the momentum of Apple iPhone shipments.
The projection is a turning point in the smartphone market, with analysts crediting Apple’s rise to a powerful upgrade cycle, strong holiday demand for the iPhone 17 series demand.
Millions of users are shifting from second-hand devices to new models in what could become the largest iPhone shipments cycle.
Apple Reclaims the Crown After a Decade
Counterpoint Research forecasts that global smartphone shipments will grow 3.3% year over year (YoY) in 2025, but Apple will account for much of the momentum.
iPhone shipments are expected to climb 10%, reflecting Apple YoY shipment growth, pushing Apple’s global share to 19.4%, narrowly overtaking Samsung at 18.7% for the first time since 2011. The shift supports the projections of Apple beating Samsung shipments and expectations of smartphone manufacturers market share.
“Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point,” said senior analyst Yang Wang.
Wang described the next wave as one fueled by global iPhone shipments strength and the rising iPhone 17 shipment share in premium markets.
The research points to a tidal wave of upgrades ahead, 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold between 2023 and the second quarter (Q2) of 2025, with many of those users expected to enter the upgrade market soon, supporting a massive iPhone 17 market opportunity.
In the US, demand for the iPhone 17 series was 12% higher compared to that recorded for the iPhone 16 during the first four weeks from its launch. Sales in China were also up, 18% above the equivalent period, boosting iPhone 17 revenue and accelerating the consumer shift from Android to iOS.
Samsung Holds Ground and Apple Rises to the Demand
Samsung is also expected to grow shipments by 4.6% in 2025, but not enough to keep its long-held reign.
The South Korean giant is focusing on its A-series for growth in emerging markets, while premium flagships remain directed at bigger regions. Still, competitive pressure from Chinese smartphone brands could make recovery harsh at this point.
Counterpoint expects Apple iPhone shipments to maintain dominance beyond 2025 and even up to 2029 aided by a broader device portfolio, including the upcoming iPhone 17e and a planned foldable iPhone.
A “major iPhone design revamp,” expected in 2027, could further strengthen the iPhone parent’s position, further reinforcing the Apple strategy to capture consumers globally.
“These users are also likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years,” Counterpoint said, noting that the replacement cycle remains Apple’s biggest long-term advantage as it expands across the global iPhone market.
Meanwhile, Chinese manufacturers are likely to increase overseas presence and move further into premium segments. Diversification might ensure higher revenues, even if global shipment rankings do not change.
If Apple iPhone shipments projections are held, 2025 will be the year when Apple will finally take back its smartphone crown not just due to new hardware, but by leveraging timing, loyalty, and ecosystem strength. With millions of older iPhones approaching renewal and new models spanning more price tiers than before, Apple’s rise signals a broader shift that could define competition in the smartphone market for the remainder of the decade – driven in part by Apple iPhone shipments momentum.
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