China and the US are competing aggressively, not just in technology, but the energy that powers data center renewable energy.
The war would be won, or lost, for the next decade on solid electricity and infrastructure, rather than software innovation alone, because AI power demand will explode.
The notion that AI’s success relies almost purely on energy infrastructure is coming into view, as the US emphasizes clean but occasionally marked renewable energy AI data centers. China, on the other hand, constructs reliable energy sources, stemming from coal and nuclear to fuel its AI data centers around the clock.
The China-US war over energy may determine the destiny of global AI supremacy that would balance sustainable AI infrastructure with energy dependability.
China Powering AI
China is going all out on proven power, specifically coal and nuclear plants, for its AI power demand, and had already begun building over 94 gigawatts (GW) of new coal power in 2024.
Not only is the country’s coal fleet massive, 1,591 GW in size and including those being built and on the drawing boards, but it’s also among the most advanced and efficient in the world. Some newer coal plants use “supercritical” technology, which is less polluting than conventional coal power.
Such continuous power supply is necessary for AI, requiring around the clock power for data centers. While much attention is given to data center renewable energy, Beijing’s strategy emphasizes reliable baseload power.
China’s centralized planning permits continuation of these programs without interruption, and the world’s second largest economy is also leading in nuclear power with 58 operating reactors and 30 in construction. All this will support the Chinese ability to provide stable energy that supports green data center expansion.
“The race to develop artificial general intelligence will be the most significant economic and national security clash between the world’s great powers over the next generation,” said Power the Future Executive Director, Dan Turner, comparing the AI race to the Cold War.
US Energy Struggles
The US coal industry is collapsing, with power generation plummeting from 45% to 16% in recent years.
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), projections show coal capacity dropping to just 3 GW – from 164 GW, by 2035, despite the nation sitting on the world’s largest coal reserves, even larger than China’s.
With only two new reactors since 1990, and as coal fades and nuclear stagnates, the US has found itself faced with the eminency of global energy shifts. It is the same shift that’s leaving experts divided over reliance on renewables versus untapped fossil and atomic resources.
Nuclear Power, potentially providing baseload power around the clock, is declining too, as revealed by the sluggish rate of approval from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).
As the US depends greatly on solar and wind-powered clean energy data centers, though clean, these are recurrent and call for pricey battery backup, which is not yet ready to handle the power demands of data centers. China dominates much of the world’s solar panel, turbine, and key battery mineral production, adding a benefit to the country.
Chevron multinational energy corporation executives are sounding the alarm bells on how the US lags in the global energy race due to fragmented planning and over-reliance on renewable energy subsidies.
The reality of AI energy and water consumption cannot be ignored, and saying AI demands colossal energy needs that’s straining grids is an understatement. Natual gas must fill the void, and it must do it fast. Only then will the current American lack of a long-term strategy prevent the US from ceding dominance to its global adversaries.
In choosing clean, but not continuous, data center renewable energy over stable power, the West is potentially slowing down its own development while China is pushing forward with firm, stable energy infrastructure, resetting what is needed to create sustainable AI infrastructure for the next generation.
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